Jan 2021 Results: Total Online Grocery Sales Reach $9.3 Billion

Topline

Total US grocery online grocery sales for January 2021 hit $9.3 billion, up 15% from November, as more than 69.7 million U.S. households placed on average 2.8 orders across delivery, pickup and ship-to-home.

For January, the delivery and pickup segments captured $7.1 billion sales (see chart below), accounting for 77% of total online sales in a market where the customer and sales mix continue to shift toward delivery and pickup services.

Key Findings

According to the January 2021 Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey , in the last 30 days, shoppers using online grocery services are:

GROWING THE BASE FOR DELIVERY/PICKUP. The increase in total online sales for January 2020 was driven largely by a 16% increase in the number of households buying online. Among the total household monthly active users -

• 78% engaged with either a delivery or pickup service – up from 64% in November.
• 46% used a ship-to-home service - down from 56% in November.

SHIFTING ORDERS TOWARD DELIVERY/PICKUP. While the average number of total online grocery orders placed by monthly active users for January 2021 remained at 2.8, essentially flat versus November 2020, the order mix changed as the delivery and pickup segments collectively -

• Gained nearly six percentage points of order share.
• Accounted for 66% of all online orders completed during January 2021.

LESS SATISFIED. January’s overall ratings for intent to make a repeat purchase in the next month with the last service used dropped to 56% overall, down 32 percentage points from November’s record high – with the pickup segment experiencing the greatest rating decline (35 points).

The January research revealed a growing share of first-time online shoppers in past month's customer mix – the share of first-time customers climbed by 3 percentage points overall and more than 6 points for pickup in Jan 2021 compared to November. This first-time customer group has consistently reported lower intent rates in past surveys.

Insights

January’s drop in repeat intent scores can be partially explained by shifts in the customer mix, but retail conditions are causing a decrease in satisfaction levels among even the more experienced customer cohort; intent-to-repeat for this group dropped by almost 18 points in January compared to November 2020.

Even though many grocers remain capacity constrained – especially with pickup – others are growing market share as they staff up or expand pickup to a larger store base. While throwing more labor at the issue isn’t ideal, that – along with improving assembly productivity via enhanced pick and pack practices – is vital to remaining competitive in the near term and not inadvertently giving your customer a reason to shop elsewhere.

* Brick Meets Click defines first-time customers as shoppers that place their first order with a specific service within the last three months, and “experienced” customers as those who made at least four orders with a service over the last three months.

Sponsor Appreciation

We thank the team at Mercatus for their continued generous support of the January research wave. Click here to see the February 22, 2021 press release.

About this Consumer Research

Brick Meets Click conducted the survey on Jan. 28-31, 2021 with 1,776 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping. Results were adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and were weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Brick Meets Click used a similar methodology in terms of design, timing, and sampling for each of the surveys conducted throughout 2020: Nov. 11-14 (n=2,067), Aug. 24-26 (n=1,817), June 24-25 (n=1,781), May 20-22 (n=1,724), April 22-24 (n= 1,651), and March 23-25 (n=1,601).