Market Overview
The U.S. online grocery market showcased significant growth in September 2024, recording $9.5 billion in sales, a 27% increase year-over-year according to the Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopper Survey fielded September 30-31, 2024.
September also marked the first month of strong double digit sales gains for eGrocery in 2024, primarily driven by strong promotional efforts for subscription and membership programs that started in May and Delivery reaches a new record high for penetration among active eGrocery HHs.
All Methods Grow YOY
Delivery jumps big
Delivery experienced an impressive 45% YOY growth, reaching $3.9 billion in sales. This growth was driven by an expanded base of monthly active users (MAUs), increased average order value (AOV), and higher order frequency.
Pickup on the rise
Pickup achieved a 10% YOY increase, with $4.0 billion in sales. A larger MAU base and higher AOV were key drivers, although order frequency slightly declined.
Ship-to-Home accelerates
Ship-to-Home saw a 30% YOY sales increase, totaling $1.7 billion. This method posted the highest growth for AOV among the three and reported a notable rise in both MAUs and order frequency.
Key Shopper Trends
Order Frequency
Online order frequency rose by 12.6%, averaging 2.60 orders per MAU in September 2024. The increase was driven by fewer one-time orders and more customers making three or more purchases and laps the post-COVID low mark of 2.31 reported in Sept. ’23.
Active customers spending more
AOVs increased across all fulfillment methods, with Ship-to-Home seeing a 12% YOY jump, and Pickup and Delivery growing by 8% and 6%, respectively.
Record penetration for Delivery
Over 47% of all MAUs placed at least one Delivery order in September 2024, a new high.
Mass Retailers gain repeat customers
The gap between Mass and Grocery repeat intent widened nearly threefold, driven by Mass retailers' strong YOY improvements.Cross-Shopping
Cross-shopping growth
Nearly one in three online Grocery shoppers also placed an order from a Mass retailer in August 2024, highlighting increased competition.
Seasonality & the impact of Delivery promotions
Although September’s YOY performance was robust, its monthly sales of $9.5 billion were lower than the $9.9 billion reported for August. The month-over-month decline was not surprising given seasonal eGrocery sales patterns, which Brick Meets Click estimated based on monthly eGrocery sales over the last four years, however, the drop from August to September had been larger in past years.
It is likely that the strong results for Sept. ’24 are due to the recent promotional activity by many Delivery service providers to build enrollment in their respective membership or subscription programs. Grocery professionals should take note of these trends to optimize offerings and enhance customer engagement in this growing market.
About this Consumer Research
The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.
Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on September 29-30, 2024, with 1,740 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping, and a similar survey in September 2023 (n=1,754). Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:
- Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.
- Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
- Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.