Video: eGrocery Insights - February 2025

Welcome to the February 2025 episode of US eGrocery Sales Trends, hosted by Mark Fairhurst, Chief Growth Marketing Officer at Mercatus, and featuring David Bishop, Partner at Brick Meets Click.

Top-line results

Mark and David begin by highlighting that sales figures for February 2025 which was the 7th consecutive month of eGrocery sales exceeding $9.5 billion. This prompted them to discuss the cumulative effects of aggressive subscription promotions, which are driving higher repeat purchases and customer retention.

Higher Repeat Intent Rates

Mark and David then examine why Supermarkets and Regional Grocers saw an unexpected spike in repeat customers, signaling potential improvements in value and convenience. Despite this positive KPI, David warned that Walmart continues to dominate in its ability to drive first-party orders, with more than 80% of online grocery orders placed directly through Walmart’s app or website, compared to just 50% for Regional Grocers (many of whom still rely heavily on third-party services).

Expected growth rate for 2025

Looking ahead, it is anticipated that overall eGrocery growth for 2025 will hit +10%, but inflation, tariffs, and government policies could impact the overall trajectory.

New Record Large Active Monthly User Base

Mark and David also noted that eGrocery penetration reached an all-time high in February as more than 80 million U.S. households purchased groceries online. This represents a 12% YOY increase and marks yet another major eGrocery KPI milestone.

Strategic Guidance for Regional Grocers

Mark and David then discussed strategies Regional Grocers could use to shift their customers from third-party service providers, including differential pricing, first-party ordering incentives, and loyalty program enhancements. They stressed the importance of this as customer engagement and retention will be critical for Grocers looking to sustain growth as Walmart tightens its grip on the market.

Video Chapters

0:00 – Introductions

0:37 – February’s Headline: Sales Surpass $9.5B for the 7th Month

1:50 – Why Are Regional Grocers Seeing More Repeat Customers?

3:27 – Walmart’s Membership Impact on Repeat Purchases

6:30 – First-Time Users Repeat Intent Rates Spike: What’s Behind the Trend?

8:53 – Middle-Class Online Grocery Shopping Stalls – Why?

10:10 – eGrocery Adoption Hits Record 80.3M Households

11:48 – Market Growth Outlook for 2025 (+10%)

13:10 – Walmart vs. Regional Grocers: First-Party Ordering Trends

14:10 – Strategies for Regional Grocers: Driving Direct Orders

15:12 – Walmart’s Strengths and Weaknesses in eGrocery

16:54 – Closing Thoughts

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