February 2025 U.S. eGrocery Surge 31% YOY Reaching $10.3 Billion

Top-line

Strong growth year-over-year (YOY) underscores the continued momentum triggered by aggressive membership and subscription strategies as key performance indicators show robust growth.

eGrocery’s Explosive Growth in early 2025

As the online grocery segment continues to surge, retailers have opportunities to attract new users or win back less-frequent users and strengthen customer loyalty.

• In February 2025, eGrocery sales soared by 31% compared vs. a year ago, reaching $10.3 billion.
• With over 80 million U.S. households placing at least one online grocery order during February, the market is evolving further, driven primarily by the aggressive promotion of membership/subscription offers.

The Power of Subscription and Memberships

Many firms that have invested in eGrocery membership or subscription programs are reaping substantial benefits.

• February marked the ninth consecutive period of YOY growth, fueled by deep discounts on annual memberships and subscriptions that began mid-2024.
• These offers unlocked latent demand by reducing the explicit and recurring cost associated with using these services and that resulted in higher order frequency and higher retention rates.

Delivery Leads the Charge

Delivery remains the fastest-growing eGrocery segment, skyrocketing 45% year-over-year to $4.5 billion in February to capture 44% of total eGrocery sales.  

Key factors behind Delivery’s YOY growth include:

• A significant uptick in Monthly Active Users (MAUs), particularly among seniors (60+) and young adults (18-29).
• Stronger order frequency and higher Average Order Values (AOVs).

Pickup Reports Steady Growth

Pickup services also saw notable growth, with sales rising 19% year-over-year to $4.1 billion.

• While both MAUs and order frequency increased, AOV growth was the primary driver for the Pickup service.
• Despite the growth vs. last year, Pickup’s share of sales declined slightly to 39% due to the stronger performance by the Delivery segment.

Ship-to-Home Gains Traction

Ship-to-Home recorded a 29% increase, reaching $1.8 billion in sales.

This growth is likely linked to consumers seeking better convenience amid in-store security measures, such as locked plexiglass displays, as the method represented 17% of total eGrocery sales.

Positive Trends for Supermarkets/Grocery and Mass Retailers

Both Supermarkets and Mass retailers posted significant gains across all key performance indicators—MAUs, order frequency, and AOV.

Notably, the Grocery format (which includes Supermarkets and Hard Discounters) is closing the gap with Mass format (which includes Walmart, Target, and others) in terms of repeat intent rates for Delivery and Pickup services.

In addition, the likelihood of customers reordering from the same eGrocery service within a month reached a new post-pandemic high, just 7% below pre-COVID levels.

Winning the Customer with a Great Experience

“Regional grocers are converting first-time shoppers into more loyal customers as evidenced by the rising repeat intent rates, but so is Walmart.  While deep discounts drive trial, long-term success hinges on delivering an exceptional shopping experience,” said Mark Fairhurst, Chief Growth Marketing Officer, Mercatus. He added Supermarkets must focus on:

·   Personalizing promotions and rewards to increase customer retention.

·   Enhancing fulfillment accuracy and speed to ensure customer satisfaction.

·   Streamlining digital and in-store integration to create a seamless omnichannel experience.

eGrocery’s Growing Share of Total Grocery Spending

While total grocery spending rose by less than 5% year-over-year, eGrocery’s exceptional growth propelled its share of total sales to nearly 18% this month, up 370 basis points from February 2024.

Looking & Planning Ahead

As the eGrocery landscape continues to evolve, Supermarket operators need to understand what’s happening both at the national level but also in their markets, so they adapt quickly.

When your organization needs analytical support, competitive intelligence, strategic planning or advisory services, Brick Meets Click has the insights and skills set to keep you moving forward in the eGrocery space.

Retailers, please reach out to me at david.bishop@brickmeetsclick.com to learn more.

About this consumer research‍

The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.

Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on January 30-31, 2025, with 1,691 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping, and a similar survey in January 2024 (n=1,745). Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:

• ‍Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.‍
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.‍
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.

For more information about Februay 2025 results, check out the latest Brick Meets Click eGrocery Dashboard or visit the eGrocery Monthly Sales report page for information about subscribing to the full monthly report.