The U.S. online grocery market finished January with total sales of $8.5 billion, up 1.8% compared to 2023, according to the most recent monthly Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopper Survey fielded January 30-31, 2024. Delivery and Pickup lose share to Ship-to-Home while the Mass format, led by Walmart, continues to outperform Supermarkets.

Despite a jump in the total number of households buying groceries online during the month, January’s overall sales growth was moderated year-over-year by a downward trend in order frequency and a composite average order value (AOV) that was nearly flat compared to the prior year. Monthly results varied by the receiving method and format as Mass continued to expand share while Supermarkets contracted.

“When more than 10% of U.S. households have less money to spend on groceries this year than they did last year, changes in buying behavior are certainly expected,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “The reduction in SNAP payments that took effect at the end of February 2023 is one of the factors driving the flight-to-value trend which we’ve observed and tracked since mid-2023.”

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Topline for January 2024

Ship-to-Home was the only segment to grow year-over-year as sales climbed to $1.5 billion in January, up 7.8% compared to a year ago.

• Higher order volume, driven by a surge in monthly active users (MAUs) and a more than 7% increase in AOV, helped the segment capture 224 additional basis points (bps), to end the month with 17.4% of total eGrocery sales.    

Delivery sales of $3.0 billion slipped slightly, down 0.5% versus January 2023, as the 3% growth in its AOV could not offset the larger decline in order volume.

• While the Delivery MAU base expanded slightly, the gain was eclipsed by the decline in order frequency among MAUs. As a result, Delivery’s share of eGrocery sales slipped 82 bps to 35.3% for the month.

Pickup remained in the top spot, but its sales fell 1.9% to $4.0 billion for January.

• The drop was mainly due to lower order frequency by MAUs and a 1.8% contraction in AOV, despite a moderate expansion of its MAU base. Pickup finished the month with 47.3% of eGrocery sales, down 142 bps versus January 2023.  

The Mass format, led by Walmart, continued to outperform the broader market.

• In total, Mass expanded its MAU base by almost 10% while it also posted a healthy uptick in AOVs. And the growth in its MAU base more than compensated for flat year-over-year order frequency among its active customers.
• In contrast, Supermarkets endured ongoing headwinds as key performance indicators (KPIs) all struggled versus last year. The number of Supermarket MAUs contracted by more than 5%, the average number of orders completed by MAUs during the month fell by a larger rate, and the average dollars spent per order pulled back slightly.      

Cross-shopping between Mass and Grocery (which includes Supermarket and Hard Discount) decreased slightly in January versus the prior year.

• Although Walmart’s rate climbed over 300 bps versus a year ago, the overall dip resulted from a decline in cross-shopping among other Mass retailers.
• Last month more than 29% of households that bought groceries online from Grocery also purchased groceries online using a Mass retailer’s shopping service. Overall, cross-shopping rates between Grocery and Mass remain nearly twice as high as before the onset of the pandemic.

Online sales across all formats accounted for 13.4% of total weekly grocery spending during the last week of January, increasing 120 bps versus last year.

• The combined contribution of Pickup and Delivery, since most conventional supermarkets do not offer Ship-to-Home, also grew 72 bps to finish the month at 11.1%.

A message from our sponsor

"Competing online is only getting more challenging for regional grocers as customer expectations continue to increase," said Mark Fairhurst, Global Chief Growth Officer at Mercatus. "So, beyond improving key elements of the experience, like fill rates, wait times, and product quality, regional grocers also need to work even harder to identify additional ways to help their customers save money."

About this consumer research‍

The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.

Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on January 30-31, 2024, with 1,745 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping and a similar survey in January 2023, with a sample of 1,735. Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:

• Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.

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