January 2025 U.S. eGrocery Sales Reach $10.0 Billion, Up 17% YOY

U.S. online grocery monthly sales kicked off 2025 with a strong performance, reaching $10.0 billion in January—an impressive 16.6% increase year-over-year (YOY) according to the Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey sponsored by Mercatus and fielded January 30-31, 2025.

This growth was driven by all three key fulfillment methods, with Delivery leading the charge and marks the sixth consecutive month of sales exceeding $9.5 billion

Market Overview

It’s important to note that much of Delivery’s explosive growth is driven by Mass and specifically Walmart. The ongoing waves of promotional tactics are having the intended positive impact on frequency and spend, and they are also increasing retention and share of wallet, which will make growth for traditional grocers more challenging going forward.

Delivery Gains Ground with Ongoing Promotions

January saw Delivery sales soar by approximately 37% YOY, reaching $4.1 billion. This surge was fueled by ongoing deep discounts on memberships and subscription programs, particularly by major players like Walmart. Delivery’s momentum was driven by its expanding monthly active user (MAU) base, increased order frequency, and slight improvements in average order values (AOVs).

As a result, Delivery gained 610 basis points (bps) in sales share compared to the previous year, now representing 41% of total eGrocery sales.

Pickup Continues to Grow Despite Headwinds

While Pickup remained the leading eGrocery fulfillment method with a 42% share of eGrocery sales, its growth was modest in comparison. Sales increased by only 4% YOY to $4.2 billion, supported solely by higher AOVs, as the MAU base contracted and order frequency declined.

The uptick in promotional activity continues to supercharge Delivery sales, leading to a 500-bps decline in market share for Pickup compared to last year.

Ship-to-Home Benefits from Sub-optimal In-store Experience

Ship-to-Home sales climbed 9% YOY to $1.6 billion, supported by an expanding MAU base and more frequent orders, despite a drop in AOV. The segment continues to benefit from in-store challenges, such as locked-up merchandise in categories like general merchandise and health & beauty to prevent theft, which drive some consumers toward online alternatives.

However, its slower growth relative to Delivery resulted in a 110-bps decline in share, bringing it to 16% of total eGrocery sales.

Competition from Mass Retailers: Signs of Improvement for Grocery

Traditional grocery operators – including Supermarkets and Hard Discounters –are grappling with growing competition from Mass retailers, particularly Walmart. Over the past three years, the Mass channel has consistently served half of all MAUs each January, compared to one-third for Supermarkets and less than 5% for Hard Discounters.

• Cross-shopping trends reveal that one-third of Grocery’s MAU base also shopped at a Mass retailer in January 2025, though this figure dipped slightly from the previous year.
• Encouragingly, Grocery’s repeat intent saw a 600-bps YOY increase, closing the gap with Mass retailers. This improvement was driven by stronger intent to use the same service again among Pickup users, even as Mass retailers maintained their lead in Delivery orders.

eGrocery’s Expanding Role in Overall Grocery Sales

While January’s eGrocery sales surged 16.6% YOY, total grocery spending grew just 2.5% in the same period. This led to a notable increase in eGrocery’s share of total grocery sales, which rose to more than 15%, up 180 bps from the previous year.

Strategic Imperatives for Grocery Retailers

“Delivery’s impressive growth has been driven by membership promotions, but shoppers can easily shift platforms depending on which factor matters most to them – price, product, or convenience,” said Mark Fairhurst, Chief Growth Marketing Officer, Mercatus.

Fairhurst highlights that with the right strategies, grocery retailers can compete effectively in the fast-changing digital grocery landscape and drive long-term growth. Key areas of focus should include:

• Enhancing Pickup experiences to counteract the shift toward Delivery.
• Refining loyalty and membership programs to improve customer retention.
• Optimizing digital strategies for seamless omnichannel engagement.
• Personalizing promotions to attract and keep high-value shoppers.

How to Stay Ahead by Understanding the Big Picture

As shopper preferences continue to shift and competition intensifies, grocery retailers must stay ahead by understanding the forces shaping the eGrocery landscape.

When your organization needs analytical support, competitive intelligence, strategic planning or advisory services, Brick Meets Click has the insights and skills set to keep you moving forward in the eGrocery space.

Retailers, please reach out to me at david.bishop@brickmeetsclick.com to learn more.

About this consumer research‍

The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.

Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on January 30-31, 2025, with 1,691 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping, and a similar survey in January 2024 (n=1,745). Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:

• ‍Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.‍
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.‍
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.

For more information about January 2025 results, check out the latest Brick Meets Click eGrocery Dashboard or visit the eGrocery Monthly Sales report page for information about subscribing to the full monthly report.