Oct 2023: U.S. eGrocery sales up 5% versus year ago to $8.2 billion

The U.S. online grocery market increased by 5.0% versus last year, ending October with $8.2 billion in sales, according to the latest monthly Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey fielded October30-31. Delivery and Mass drive the topline sales gain as cross-shopping between Grocery and Mass reaches a record high.

Topline

Higher average order values (AOVs), especially in Delivery, offset a slowdown in total order volume for the month.

In addition, there are several signs that U.S.households may be attempting to economize as Mass continued to experience gains in its monthly active user (MAU) base, AOV, and order frequency versus a year ago and the rate of cross-shopping between Grocery and Mass reached a record high 34%.

“The Mass format, and particularly Walmart, continues to attract a larger share of MAUs as U.S. households search for ways to save money,” said David Bishop, Partner at Brick Meets Click. “The share of MAUs who bought from Mass has grown over 11 percentage points since last year, finishing at more than 50% this October.”

Key Findings: October 2023 YOY

More households buying groceries online using Pickup and/or Delivery

While the number of households receiving one or more online grocery orders during October was relatively unchanged versus a year ago, Pickupexpanded its MAU base by 6%, versus 2% for Delivery, and Ship-to-Home contracted by 6%.

More households buying groceries online with Mass and Grocery

The Mass MAU base surged, growing 29% on a year-over-year basis, continuing a “flight-to-value” type of shopping behavior which has been seen for the lastseveral months.

Grocery’s MAU base also expanded during October 2023,increasing 6% versus 2022.

Overall eGrocery order volume down 3% versus last year

The total number of eGrocery orders placed during October fell by about3% versus last year, brought down by a drop in Ship-to-Home volume and a moremodest dip in Pickup orders.

Delivery bucked the downward trend, growing in the month, fueled by stronger volume coming from Mass.

Order frequency rates rebounded from last month's post-COVID low.

Although the number of orders pe rMAU for Oct. ’23 rebounded from Sept '23's post-COVID low, the rate was 3%below last year.

Topline average order value (AOV) up almost 10%

The topline average order value (AOV) rose nearly 9% versus last year as spending per order climbed across all three receiving methods.

Delivery’s AOV posted a 10% increase, Pickup increased by 6%, and Ship-to-Home increased by 5%.

Cross-shopping between Grocery and Mass reaches record high.

In October, the percentage of customers who bought groceries online from both Grocery and Mass during the month set a record high, jumping 680 basis points compared to last year as over 34% of Grocery’s MAU base also shopped for groceries online with a Mass retailer.

Repeat intent rates grow for both Mass and Grocery, but Mass widens the gap.

Although the composite repeat intent rate for Pickup and Delivery in October improved to approximately 62%, up 390 bps versus 2022, Mass continued to outperform Grocery.

Mass finished the month with a nearly ten point lead over Grocery, expanding its lead by 220 bps versus 2022, driven by significant improvement in repeat intent rates related to Delivery orders compared to last year.

Online's share of total spending up YOY

Online sales across all formats accounted for 12.5% of total weekly grocery spending during the last week of October, increasing 90 bps versus last year.

The combined contribution of Pickup and Delivery, since most conventional supermarkets don’t offer Ship-to-Home, also grew 90 bps to finish the month at10.3%.

Sponsor Message & Appreciation

“As today’s regional grocers focus on improving operational aspects of their online grocery services, they continue to face stiff headwinds from economic and competitive pressures,” said Sylvain Perrier, president and CEO, Mercatus. “To mitigate these challenges, grocers should identify ways to differentiate their online shopping experience, such as highlighting private label products, amplifying personalization efforts, and/or offering unique rewards and promotions that include product sampling.”

We thank the team at Mercatus for their continued generous support of this research.  

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About this consumer research

The Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus. Brick Meets Click conducted the survey on October 30-31, 2023, with 1,790 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping.

The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:

• Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer's own employees.
• Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
• Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.

Results were adjusted based on internet usage among U.S.adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys.Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Brick Meets Click used a similar methodology for each of the surveys conducted in 2023  – Sept. 28-29 (n=1,754); Aug. 30-31 (n=1,704), July 29-30 (n=1,795), June 29-30 (n=1,769), May 30-31 (n=1,792), Apr. 28-29 (n=1,746), Mar. 30-31 (n=1,742),  Feb. 26-27 (n=1,745), Jan. 30-31 (n=1,735);in 2022  – Dec. 28-29 (n=1,715), Nov. 29-30 (n=1,749), Oct. 28-29 (n= 1,732), Sept. 29-30 (n=1,752), Aug. 29-30 (n=1,743),July 29-30 (n=1,690), June 29-30 (n=1,743), May 28-29 (n=1,802),  Apr. 28-29 (n=1,746), Mar. 28-29 (n=1,681),Feb. 26-27 (n=1,790), and Jan. 29-30 (n=1,793); in 2021  – Dec. 29-30 (n =1,836), Nov. 29-30 (n=1,785), Oct. 29-30 (n=1,751), Sept. 28-29 (n=1,728), Aug.29-30 (n=1,806), July 29-30 (n=1,892), June 27-28 (n=1,789), May 28-30(n=1,872), Apr. 26-28 (n=1,941), Mar. 26-28 (n=1,811), Feb. 26-28 (n= 1,812),and Jan. 28-31 (n=1,776); in 2020  – Nov. 11-14 (n=2,067), Aug. 24-26 (n=1,817),Jun. 24-25 (n=1,781), May 20-22 (n=1,724), Apr. 22-24 (n= 1,651), and Mar.23-25 (n=1,601); and in 2019  – Aug. 22-24 (n = 2,485).

Photo credit: Cindy Christian, Tucson, AZ