Total 3Q24 U.S. eGrocery Sales Surge to $27.4 Billion, up 14% vs. Last Year

Strong Delivery sales, up 25% YOY, accelerated quarterly eGrocery growth as the Mass format continues to gain market share amid evolving cost pressures and consumer preferences.

Barrington, Ill. – October 21, 2024 – Online grocery in the U.S. experienced robust growth in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), with total sales rising by 13.8% to $27.4 billion compared to $24.0 billion for the same period in 2023. This increase was largely propelled by significant year-over-year growth in Delivery according to U.S. eGrocery Market Share Report – 3Q24, powered by data from the monthly Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey.

All three receiving methods – Delivery, Ship-to-Home, and Pickup – contributed to the overall growth for 3Q24 but to varying degrees. Ship-to-Home posted a gain of 15%, and Pickup gained approximately 5%. Most of the increase was driven by Delivery, which had 25% year-over-year sales growth after posting a nearly 6% decline during the prior year.

In terms of overall eGrocery sales, the Mass format continued to gain market share, driven by the Delivery and Ship-to-Home segments, as Supermarkets wrestled with ongoing declines. In Delivery, Mass increased its sales share by 390 basis points year-over-year, reaching 52.7% in 3Q24, while Supermarkets slid 250 basis points to just under 38%. Mass also improved its position in the Ship-to-Home segment, growing its share by 150 basis points to 16.4%, mainly at the expense of Amazon, which finished at 50.1%, down 100 basis points from the previous year. For Pickup, Mass’ share slipped slightly as it fell 70 bps versus 3Q23, capturing 56.1% of the method’s overall sales, likely due to the membership push by Walmart that is boosting demand for Delivery.

“The strong 3Q24 results for eGrocery underscore the importance of strengthening the customer value proposition to align better with the evolving expectations associated with shopping online for groceries,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “Mass, and Walmart in particular, have demonstrated the value of better understanding online shoppers’ preferences while also leveraging its vast store network and digital reach to grow faster than the overall market.”

The monthly active user (MAU) base, which includes all methods and retail formats, grew from 54% last year to 56% this year, helping to drive eGrocery’s sales gains. In addition, the proportion of MAUs that spent 25% or more of their weekly grocery budget online increased by over 3 percentage points versus 3Q23.

The share of total grocery spending going online also resumed its upward trajectory, climbing to 14.6% in 3Q24, after pulling back in 3Q23. The combined share that Pickup and Delivery contributed to eGrocery sales increased by 110 basis points over the previous year finishing Q324 at 12.0%.

Although the likelihood of customers reusing the same Delivery service has declined over the past three years across both Mass retailers and Supermarkets, the gap between customers’ intent to order again has widened across the two formats. This gap expanded from 5.5 points in 3Q22 to 10.2 points in 3Q24 in favor of Mass. Besides the ongoing financial pressures that likely motivate many households to continue using Mass, another causal factor may be related to the first-party delivery experience offered by Mass retailers like Walmart.

The challenges will likely continue for Supermarkets as a larger share of their MAUs choose to cross-shop for groceries online from Mass. In 3Q24, one-third of Supermarket MAUs also shopped at Mass retailers during the same month, reflecting an increase of 130 basis points from the prior year and more than double the rate in 2019 when it was under 15%.

“To compete effectively against giants like Walmart, Supermarkets must deepen their customer connections and enhance their service,” said Mark Fairhurst, Chief Growth Officer at Mercatus. “Leveraging customer insights is crucial for creating personalized experiences and offering targeted savings to customers -- but that's only possible when retailers can effectively operationalize the data."

Looking across the monthly results for 3Q24, online grocery sales totaled $7.9 billion in July, $9.9 billion in August, and $9.5 billion for September 2024 which had very strong year-over-year growth vs. last year due to significant gains by Delivery. Although September’s total monthly sales were lower than in August, the decline was smaller than expected based on seasonal eGrocery sales patterns, which Brick Meets Click estimated based on monthly eGrocery sales over the last four years. The strong results are likely due to the recent promotional activity by many Delivery service providers to build enrollment in their respective membership or subscription programs.

For more information about the market share trends, go to eGrocery Market Share Report - 3Q24. For details related to the September 2024 results, check out the latest Brick Meets Click eGrocery Dashboard or visit the eGrocery Monthly Sales Report page for information about  purchasing the full monthly report.

About this report and analysis

The U.S. eGrocery Market Share Report - 3Q24 is a quarterly report created by Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus. The report is designed to help grocery retailers, and their suppliers understand the how the eGrocery market is shifting by providing market share estimates across several retail formats (Supermarkets, Mass, Hard Discount, etc.) and receiving methods (Delivery, Pickup, and Ship-to-Home) over a three-year period, running between July 2021 and September2024.

The analysis leverages data from the monthly Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey, an independent research initiative conducted by Brick Meets Click since March 2020, and sponsored by Mercatus. This analysis is based on 5,426 responses compiled across the Q3 of 2021; 5,185 responses compiled during Q3 2022; 5,253 responses in Q3 of 2023; and 5,329 responses compiled during Q3 of 2024 from adults 18 years and older who participated in the household’s grocery shopping.

About Brick Meets Click

Brick Meets Click is an analytics and strategic insight firm that connects today's grocery business with tomorrow's needs. Our clear thinking and practical solutions help clients make their strategies and customer offers more compelling and relevant in the changing U.S. grocery market. We bring deep industry expertise and fact-based analysis to the challenge of finding new routes to success.

About Mercatus

Mercatus drives digital transformation for retailers through an extensive suite of connected and contextualized commerce solutions. We enhance shopper engagement, tailor experiences to individual preferences, and cultivate enduring loyalty across retail businesses of every size. Our mission is to enable retailers to captivate customers, boost sales, foster retention, and deepen loyalty in a digital world. With our cutting-edge solutions, retailers can streamline operations, enrich customer experiences, and realize substantial growth. Embark on the digital transformation journey and unleash the full potential of your retail business with Mercatus.